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By Marilyn Odendahl
The Indiana Citizen
September 12, 2024

Democratic challenger Destiny Wells has released new polling data in the Indiana attorney general’s race, showing she is in a virtual dead heat with incumbent Todd Rokita.

In a survey of 600 Hoosier voters conducted between Aug. 26 and Sept. 2, Lake Research Partners, a progressive polling firm from Washington, D.C., found Wells was within the 4 percentage point margin of error, with 41% of the electorate supporting her candidacy, compared to 44% for Rokita, and 13% undecided. However, the pollsters found that as voters learned more about Wells’ background and experience, and heard a battery of statements critical of Rokita’s record as the state’s top attorney, in particular his opposition to abortion, Wells’ support rose to 50%, while Rokita’s slipped to 42% and undecided voters dropped to 5%.

“We start out in the statistical tie with Todd Rokita, well within the survey’s margin of error, and we made progress over the course of the survey,” Daniel Gotoff, partner at Lake Research, said. “There is a lot of dissatisfaction with the job that he’s doing. His personal image ratings are upside down. His job performance … is even more negative and you see some real weakness, even among his base of Republican voters.”

Wells said the poll results highlighted an opportunity for her campaign to educate Hoosier voters about who Rokita is and his missteps as attorney general. Still, even though emphasizing Rokita’s negatives swayed voters in the poll to support her, Wells acknowledged she will have to raise her own profile by talking about her military service and her work as an attorney to convince Hoosiers to actually vote for her.

Pointing to her unsuccessful run for Indiana secretary of state in 2022, Wells said she lost the most sleep over the problem of voter turnout. Marion County voters, in particular, have to go to the polls on Election Day, she said, because no Democrat can win a statewide office in Indiana without their support.

Moreover, Wells said she will have to convince more voters to split their tickets. In the 2022 race, GOP Sen. Todd Young – whom Wells described as a lawmaker who is not divisive or polarizing – was at the top of the ballot, so many Republicans just checked the straight ticket box. Wells and her team were “caught flat footed,” she said, when they saw the secretary of state race’s results that showed the number of straight ticket voters.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Wells conceded she and her team do not have much time before the Nov. 5 election to capitalize on the openings that the polling results identified she has in the attorney general contest.

“This is 55 days to do our best work and to make sure that we’re raising the profile of this race, informing the electorate so they can make the best decisions that are in line with what the data shows in where they are at,” Wells said.

Rokita is a formidable opponent. In 2020, he bested scandal-plagued incumbent Curtis Hill and a crowded Republican field to win the party’s nomination for attorney general. He then topped the Democratic nominee, Jonathan Weinzapfel, in the general election, capturing 58% of the vote.

This year, despite having been publicly reprimanded by the Indiana Supreme Court for misconduct and facing two additional ethics investigations, Rokita did not have any challengers for the GOP nomination.

However, the Lake Research poll results indicated Rokita’s support is soft.

The polling found that his personal image and performance as attorney general are liabilities, according to Gotoff. Among all voters, 23% had a favorable impression of Rokita, but 26% had an unfavorable impression of him and 52% did not have a substantive impression, including 32% who told the pollsters they had never heard of him. Comparatively, 11% of the voters had a favorable impression of Wells, while 4% had an unfavorable impression and 86% had no impression.

Also, 42% of voters said Rokita’s job performance was “just fair” or “poor,” while 31% rated him as doing an “excellent” or “good” job, according to the poll results.

Republicans are expected to overwhelmingly vote for Rokita, Gotoff said, but the polling showed he is not consolidating support. Wells has support from 97% of Hoosier Democrats and 60% of Independents. Also, 17% of Republicans are crossing over to support her. Conversely, 75% of Republicans, 22% of Independents and 1% of Democrats support Rokita.

“Obviously, we expect Rokita to win Republicans handily,” Gotoff said. “But even in Indiana, if you are conceding 10%, 15%, 17% of Republicans to the opposition and losing Independents, that is a recipe for an upset.”

Dwight Adams, an editor and writer based in Indianapolis, edited this article. He has been a content editor, copy editor and digital producer at The Indianapolis Star and IndyStar.com, and a planner for other papers, including the Louisville Courier Journal.

The Indiana Citizen is a nonpartisan, nonprofit platform dedicated to increasing the number of informed and engaged Hoosier citizens. We are operated by the Indiana Citizen Education Foundation, Inc., a 501(c)(3) public charity. For questions about the story, contact Marilyn Odendahl at marilyn.odendahl@indianacitizen.org.