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Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysis sees Indiana Republicans as improving their chances of holding onto the attorney general’s office. (Photo/Pexels.com)

By Marilyn Odendahl
The Indiana Citizen
July 25, 2024

Less than two weeks after Indiana Democrats picked Destiny Wells as their party’s nominee in the attorney general’s race, a national analysis of the contest has shifted its outlook and now sees the Republicans as more likely to keep control of the office in November.

Wells will face the incumbent attorney general, Todd Rokita, in the general election.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysis, from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, has shifted its rating of the AG battle in Indiana from “leans Republican” to “likely Republican.” However, the shift in the race’s status appears to be fueled solely by the fact that a Democrat has not won a statewide race in Indiana since Glenda Ritz won the race for Indiana superintendent of public instruction in 2012.

Rokita, who has served as Indiana secretary of state and in Congress, was first elected as attorney general in 2020 and easily captured the Republican nomination in 2024. Wells, who fell short in her 2022 campaign for Indiana secretary of state while still capturing 40.2% of the votes in the general election, overwhelmingly won the Democratic nomination for attorney general at the party’s state convention, by defeating Beth White, former Marion County Circuit Court Clerk.

The Crystal Ball analysis noted Rokita did not face an opponent in his bid to run again as the Republican nominee for attorney general, but, the analysis said, the attorney general was not popular with “establishment Republicans.” Also, the analysis mentioned Rokita’s earlier disciplinary case which drew a public reprimand from the Indiana Supreme Court and alluded to the possibility that he may face more punishment.

“There’s a possibility that more disciplinary shoes could drop for Rokita, and if the fallout becomes bad enough, that could jeopardize his chances for winning,” the Crystal Ball said. “But for now, he’s the favorite, and we’re shifting the race from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.”

During the Indiana Democratic convention, the Wells campaign touted the Crystal Ball’s previous analysis which had shifted the race from “safe Republican” to “leans Republican,” but it downplayed the current ranking.

“Nothing has changed back home in Indiana — there’s no question Hoosiers have grown tired of Todd Rokita giving Indiana a bad name,” Lindsay Haake, communications director for the Wells campaign, said. “We knew that fundraising would be locked up until we won the convention race. Now that we’re 102 days away from the general election, Destiny’s fundraising has been bolstered by Hoosiers eager to fire Todd Rokita.”

Brent Littlefield, consultant with the Rokita campaign, saw the new ranking as an indication that Wells does not have strong support.

“While we take every race seriously and continue to run an aggressive campaign, it is clear leftist activist Destiny Wells is falling short,” Littlefield said. “Todd Rokita was elected with the largest number of votes in Indiana history for any statewide office and Destiny Wells, with her radical left platform, is on her way to a second loss in just 24 months.”

Even though the Crystal Ball does not foresee Democrats taking the attorney general’s office in 2024, it does not believe the GOP can be assured of victory, despite Indiana having become such a deep red state.

Comparatively, the analysis listed the attorney general races in the other red states of Utah, West Virginia, Missouri and Montana as “safe Republican.” Also, the open attorney general seats in North Carolina and Pennsylvania that are currently held by Democrats are ranked as toss-ups.

The Crystal Ball also said the Indiana attorney general’s race will draw more of the Democrats’ attention than the other statewide contests on the ballot. “It’s expected to be Indiana’s most competitive statewide race in 2024, far more than the gubernatorial and (U.S.) Senate contests,” the analysis said.

Dwight Adams, an editor and writer based in Indianapolis, edited this article. He has been a content editor, copy editor and digital producer at The Indianapolis Star and IndyStar.com, and a planner for other papers, including the Louisville Courier Journal.

The Indiana Citizen is a nonpartisan, nonprofit platform dedicated to increasing the number of informed and engaged Hoosier citizens. We are operated by the Indiana Citizen Education Foundation, Inc., a 501(c)(3) public charity. For questions about the story, contact Marilyn Odendahl at marilyn.odendahl@indianacitizen.org.

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