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This article was originally published by Mirror Indy, a Free Press Indiana partner.
By Emily Hopkins
Mirror Indy
December 19, 2023
By now, there are two things that most Indianapolis voters know about November’s mayoral election.
One: The more than $11 million spent by Republican entrepreneur Jefferson Shreve on his largely self-funded campaign was not enough to unseat Democratic incumbent Joe Hogsett.
And two: The more than $16 million spent by the two candidates did little to motivate voters.
Simply put, few would-be voters cared about the most expensive mayoral race in Indianapolis history. Shreve outspent Hogsett’s last challenger by nearly 1,800%, according to October campaign finance reports, with some local media reporting that the January reports would show more than $20 million spent by the two candidates.
Yet for all that money, voter turnout improved over the last mayoral election by just two percentage points. Just 27% of the city’s registered voters cast their ballots this year.
“We can’t be so naive to say it doesn’t make a difference, but in this case it reaffirms that money isn’t everything,” said Laura Merrifield Wilson, associate professor of political science at the University of Indianapolis.
An examination of certified election results by Mirror Indy offers additional insight: The small uptick in citywide voter turnout was largely driven by just four northside districts — 2, 3, 4 and 7 — which had a combined voter turnout of 37%. For the rest of the city, the turnout was just 24%.
More than a quarter of the votes came from those four districts, which are each home to more registered voters than almost any other district.
Many factors likely contributed to higher turnout in the districts, Wilson said. Voters are more likely to turn out for competitive races where candidates are engaged with their constituents, and increased education levels and socioeconomic status also make people more likely to vote.
Three of the prevailing city-county council candidates for those districts also pointed to three other reasons: longstanding and engaged neighborhood groups, a focus on local issues and a dedication to ground work.
The latter played a large role in Democrat City-County Councilor-elect Nick Roberts’ campaign in District 4. In the shadow of a mayoral election that was defined by abortion, guns and other national issues, the 23-year-old Lawrence native said he won his race by knocking on doors and convincing moderate voters to back him based on issues such as infrastructure and public safety.
“Every campaign is trying to nationalize races,” Roberts said. “But at some level we need substantive policy, and I think that’s where we really flip people.”
Although the increase was modest, November’s turnout was the highest for a municipal election since 2011.
That’s when Republican incumbent Mayor Greg Ballard successfully fended off a challenge by Democrat Melina Kennedy. About 30% of the city’s registered voters cast their ballots.
Still, turnout was a far cry from what is typical when state or national candidates are on the ballot. About 34% of Marion County voters cast a ballot in the 2022 midterms, and 59% did so during the presidential and gubernatorial elections in 2020.
“The irony is, this is where you can make such a notable, relevant, very tangible difference in the policies that are going to impact voters,” Wilson said.
Indianapolis might have seen a higher voter turnout if its municipal races happened at the same time as state and national ones, Wilson said. But that doesn’t mean voters would be more engaged on the local level. Candidates for higher office tend to have a “coattail” effect for local races, meaning if someone votes for a Republican presidential candidate while the mayor is on the ballot, the latter will enjoy the popularity of the former.
That’s especially true in Indiana, where the option of straight-ticket ballots allows voters to choose all candidates of a single party with one click. About 65% of Marion County voters cast a straight-ticket ballot in November.
Voters would be forgiven for thinking a national candidate was on this year’s ballot. City hall can’t pass laws on gun control or abortion access, yet those issues became flash points during the election when the Hogsett campaign resurfaced Shreve’s anti-abortion, pro-gun rights statements from his prior run for state senator in 2016.
In a city that already favors Democrats, the ads put Shreve on the defensive as he tried to refocus attention on local issues, including by holding an eleventh-hour press conference to highlight his policy goals around leaf collection.
Competitive races are also a driver of turnout.
But despite the large dollar amount he spent on the race, Wilson said, Shreve’s policy proposals in the mayoral election were arguably too similar to Hogsett’s for voters to take a chance on him. Case in point: When Shreve announced his plan to curb gun violence in July, many pointed out that Hogsett had introduced similar policies two months prior.
Hogsett’s reelection is the second defeat of a well-funded Republican challenger in as many years. Cyndi Carrasco lost her bid to unseat Democratic prosecutor Ryan Mears last year, despite outspending her opponent.
Still, Joe Elsener, chair of the county and executive director of the state Republican party, said there’s a lot the GOP can be hopeful for in Marion County.
Shreve lost by 18 points, down from the 45-point, 2019 defeat of Republican challenger and former state senator Jim Merritt. Shreve also carried nine out of 25 council districts, including three that elected Democratic city-county councilors (one of those races was uncontested). And, Elsener noted, the party took every contested seat on Speedway’s town council.
“Our effort really closed the gaps,” he said.
City-County Councilor John Barth didn’t have an opponent, but he said he ran his campaign as if he did.
Barth, a Democrat whose District 7 includes parts of Butler-Tarkington and Broad Ripple, said he was knocking on doors from March to November.
“If you’re running for office, whatever your opponent situation is, you owe it to the voter to be out on their doorsteps asking for their votes,” he said.
Despite having no competition, Barth’s district had the highest turnout at 38%.
Barth said turnout in his district was aided in part by neighborhood organizations that have a long history in the area. The Butler-Tarkington Neighborhood Association, for example, has been active in some form since the 1950s. Barth said the groups frequently work together on neighborhood issues and push information to community members.
“Other people look to them for what’s going on,” Barth said. “I don’t think you can underestimate the importance of a neighborhood association as glue across districts.”
Councilors who spoke to Mirror Indy also said that door knocking was central to their campaigns.
Roberts said he knocked on many doors more than once and gave out his personal cell phone number to persuade voters in District 4, which includes parts of Lawrence Township and Geist. His was one of three districts that backed Shreve and also elected a Democratic city-county councilor.
Roberts also encountered national issues as he campaigned for local office. Constituents asked about abortion, the Jan. 6 insurrection and former President Donald Trump.
“Every campaign is trying to nationalize races,” Roberts said. “The two issues I focused on were roads and safety, tangible things I could do” as a city-county councilor.
Like Barth and Roberts, Republican Councilor-elect Derek Cahill attributes his success to door knocking.
Cahill will represent District 23, a newly drawn district on the south side that gave Republicans a sixth seat on the City-County Council.
Turnout in his district came in at 23%, a few points lower than the average citywide rate. Cahill said one reason voter turnout is lower is because the south side doesn’t have as many active neighborhood groups as other parts of the city.
Cahill, who is also the outgoing president of the Perry Township GOP Club, said he tried to track down his own neighborhood association but found that the person who had been listed as the group’s leader had apparently moved to Florida 13 years ago.
“I’d say that doesn’t count,” Cahill said.
Despite the mayoral loss, Cahill sees a lot of hope for the party in Marion County and beyond. He also cited population growth on the south side — part of the reason his area gained another council seat during redistricting last year.
Cahill also pointed to the potential of the Indiana Republican Diversity Leadership Series. The program is in only its third year, but five of its participants landed on the ballot in elections across the state.
“As we continue to make those connections, that’s going to help us in future elections,” Cahill said.
This story has been updated to include the citywide rate of voter turnout.
Mirror Indy reporter Emily Hopkins uses data to write stories about people. Contact them at 317-790-5268 or emily.hopkins@mirrorindy.org. Follow them on most social media @indyemapolis.
