For at least four good reasons.
The first is that the Indiana Constitution has a prohibition against redistricting in the middle of the decade-long census period. Savvy GOP lawmakersâyes, they do still existâknow that any plan they come up with will face an immediate challenge in court, a challenge that has a better-than-even chance of prevailing.
If it does, these Hoosier Republican legislators, many of whom will be on the ballot themselves next year, will have risked alienating the electorate with nothing to show for their efforts but the legal bills racked up in an ill-advised fight.
Indiana voters wonât be able to vent their anger on Trump, whoâhis clickbaity talk of a third term asideâwill not grace a ballot again.
But the Hoosier lawmakers will be right there, like a pinata waiting for angry taxpayers to take a whack at.
And those voters likely will be angry.
Poll after poll indicates that Hoosiersâwhether they be independents, Democrats and even, yes, Republicansâdo not want the Indiana General Assembly to rewrite the rules and redraw the maps simply to help Donald Trump steal an election. Indiana voters are smart enough to realize that such redistricting trickery is an attempt to thwart rather than implement their will and will read it as an insult.
Then thereâs also the possibility that, even if the courts do okay these new maps, they donât work the way theyâre supposed to.
At present, Republicans control seven of Indianaâs nine U.S. House seats.
Overall, Hoosiers offer Republican candidates 55% to 60% of their support, depending upon turnout and other factors. In the seven GOP districts, Republican candidates captured an average of 62% of the vote.
So, there are some GOP votes that could be shifted to try to offset the 68% U.S. Rep. Andre Caron, D-Indiana, and the 53% U.S. Rep. Frank Mrvan, D-Indiana, rolled up in central and northwestern Indiana, respectively.
Political professionals skilled at this sort of thing tell me itâs possible to draw maps that result in an 8-1 or even 9-0 Republican congressional delegation.
But they also tell me that the margin for error involved is much smaller than theyâre comfortable with.
If thereâs any miscalculation, instead of ending up with nine or even eight Republicans going to Congress, the result could be that only six, five or even four of them win.
Particularly if the electorate is disaffected by blatant political chicanery.
The last reason Hoosier Republicans have been slow to climb aboard this particular Trump train is probably the most important.
Thereâs nothing in it for them.
What the president asks is for Indiana GOP lawmakers to run all the risks and bear all the costs of creating new maps and possibly enraging votersâand heâs offering them nothing in return, other than the possibility that he might not punish them for not doing his bidding.
Even the Republican legislators who arenât the sharpest knives in the drawerâand, yes, there are those, tooâare smart enough to recognize a bad deal when they see one.
Donald Trump once published a bookâthereâs no evidence that he actually read, much less wrote any of itâcalled âThe Art of the Deal.â
To his credit, though, he never claimed it was a good deal.
For anyone but him, that is.







