Indiana Insight
Hannah News Service
October 24th, 2025
While he was personally seeking to negotiate a peace agreement in the Russia- Ukraine war with Ukraine’s president, President Donald Trump (R) took time away from that critical global conflict to continue his war with Indiana Democrats. Indiana Senate Republicans found themselves on the receiving end of a phone call from the President during their October 17 caucus meeting, urging them to support what he believes to be their shared agenda by agreeing to a special session that would redraw Indiana’s congressional districts in mid-decade and effectively eliminate the two U.S. House seats held by Democrats.
Yet at least through late week, Indiana Senate Republicans have been doing something their federal counterparts have been unwilling to do: stand up to President Trump.
The 26 Senate votes needed to redraw maps simply aren’t there among the 40 GOP senators (we’re still hearing no more than 15 votes have been marshaled for new maps, but our whip count may be a few days out date).
Presented in a different way, Indiana Republican leaders cannot seem to deliver two-thirds of their Senate caucus members for this party-pushed initiative so important to the President that he has dispatched his vice president to Indiana twice in recent months; brought Hoosier GOP legislators to the White House for meeting with the VP; seen him personally lobby legislative leaders in the Oval Office, and interrupt Russia-Ukraine negotiations to call Senate Republicans to make his case (more cordially than he reportedly handled the Ukrainian president a few minutes earlier).
And while the votes appear to be there in the House, it’s still not as strong as backers might hope.
With legislative leadership not leading the charge for the President, there’s a good chance that if a decision is made to call a special session – it would mean that the Governor is fairly confident the votes should be there, and he’s not now. Governor Braun is already talking publicly about just how late he might be able to convene a special session, and that would be mid-to late November, because he believes that after Thanksgiving is too close to regular session.
This is all quite remarkable . . . particularly the Republican resistance, which the Washington Post Thursday characterizes as “Trump’s first major setback amid his nationwide redistricting push.”
Beyond this, other complications could arise, jeopardizing a new district package – particularly one that might be dictated (a word used by Democrats to add heat to an already combustible situation) from Washington.
Any “mappage” that is not Hoosier born and bred will certainly be seized upon by Democrats for further political points and also meet with GOP legislative, grassroots, and party (remember what we told you a while back about the Indiana Republican State Committee district officials being forced to quickly run in new districts when they believed the lines – and perhaps their posts – would be intact for another six years?) resistance.
The way the districts might be divided could cause a pro- redistricting solon to switch and vote against the final package because they harbored ambitions of running for a given seat that no longer looks viable; because their local GOP leader – or member of Congress – might not want to end up in a particular district configuration; or the proposed district lines would upset voters Back Home (particularly those on borders) because of community of interest concerns, a lack of contiguity, or seeing their hometown split (particularly if Indianapolis is cracked into a hub-and-spoke conformation) or being added to a district in which it would not play as prominent a role (as in being packed in with Indianapolis).
Speaking of Indianapolis, you may remember that CD 07 was conceded to Democrats by Republicans in the 2021 redistricting, making it a deeper blue district so that more GOP territory could be added to protect Republicans in CD 05, which had been growing concerningly more purple in recent cycles. About the only way that winning back the Indianapolis-focused seat without significantly weakening any other Republican incumbent is to carve it up into at least three – and potentially four – districts. Republicans could say that the Circle City would benefit from additional solons directly representing Indianapolis interests; Democrats would take it to court, challenging the dilution of minority representation.
Another specific interesting thing we heard whispered is that one of the new Indianapolis “spoke” districts might be created for Rep. Craig Haggard (R) so that he would not likely continue his bid to primary U.S. Rep. Jim Baird (R) (Rep. Haggard is at from Morgan County at the southern edge of a district that tops out at the Lake County border). But, the logic goes, this is not to benefit Haggard – a thorn in the side to many of his colleagues – but rather to help the Baird dynasty and draw a district which is bound to attract a few big-name hopefuls, any one of which – or all – could beat Haggard in a primary race. Sometimes the internecine fighting is the most vicious; recall how the supermajority left the Carson and Mrvan districts largely intact in 2021 instead of handling then – on the regular schedule – what they are being compelled by national interests to undertake now at an arguably inopportune time.
We’re also seeing some cracks emerging in the GOP façade as a result, with motives being questioned for landing on a given side of the remap debate.
Several of the members of the Senate resistance are those who have announced that they will not seek reelection in 2026 (such as Sens. Eric Bassler (R) and Greg Walker (R)) or who are not expected to do so in 2028 (such as Sen. Ed Charbonneau (R)). Then there are those who are believed to be in favor of redistricting in large part because of concerns about an upcoming contested primary, such as Sen. Liz Brown (R).
Some are watching Sen. Kyle Walker (R), who must run in 2026 in a district which is increasingly turning purple, and whose constituents see neighboring GOP lawmakers express opposition. Sen. Walker, a former Marion County Republican Party chair and political consultant in his day job (as is his wife), may have more access to and better understand the voter data than any of his colleagues.
But there are also some who are opposing redistricting who are caught in the middle. Sen. Jim Buck (R) has gone on record against new maps, but he’s facing a contested primary from at least one serious challenger. And what of those like Sen. Brian Buchanan (R), whose constituency is likely anti-redistricting? He’s not up until 2028, but he’s also looking to move up the leadership ladder at a time when, if re-elected in 2028, he will likely be one of the more senior members of the body. Is he susceptible to pressure . . . and, if so, from which side, given that Senate President Rodric Bray (R) has not embraced the new map concept, and seems unlikely to engage in arm- twisting on the issue.
New York Times White House correspondent Tyler Pager writes October 17 that “The White House has lobbied Indiana state officials to call a special session to approve a new map, but officials have encountered resistance from Indiana Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray, a Republican, according to people briefed on the process.” Adam Wren writes for POLITICO Wednesday that a “Trump ally close to the talks, granted anonymity to discuss the issue … cautioned that Bray and his leadership team represent the majority of no-votes. ‘If Bray would personally release his leadership to support this, there would be enough votes for this to pass,’ the person said.”
After Senate Republican Communications director Molly Swigart release statements to the media Tuesday acknowledging that “The votes aren’t there for redistricting,” signaling a new public phase in the process chosen by Sen. Bray, Governor Braun quickly tweeted, “I am still having positive conversations with members of the legislature. I am confident the majority of Indiana Statehouse Republicans will support efforts to ensure fair representation in congress for every Hoosier.”
Yes, Indiana Republican Party Chair Lana Keesling backed new maps (in a statement after close of business on a Friday before big high school, college, and pro football weekend), but we’re heard strong indications that she went rogue on that, not receiving formal backing from the Indiana Republican State Committee . . . and we again remind you about state committee being shaken up by a redistricting that could see current members of that body pitted against each other in new combined districts, or ending up in districts in which they might have no friends or allies – and almost immediately after passage having to run in those new districts.
But was this sanctioned, perhaps, by the Governor, who might have wanted to try to move the needle a bit closer toward redistricting without directly putting his thumb on the nuclear button (although with every passing day he’s become bolder in speaking out for redistricting instead of how he seemed to start the process, deferring to the General Assembly to decide of this was an appropriate course to follow)? Regardless, we’ll tell you that while the Keesling statement raised some eyebrows among the cognoscenti (at least those paying attention), her weighing in appears to have had absolutely no external impact – either in support or pushback . . . although we can’t tell you about any internal discontent.
Look at others, as well. Governor Mike Braun (R) is aboard the redistricting train, but he wasn’t the engineer, and has been checking tickets of the passengers to determine whether this trip will simply stall at the station.
He’s been evaluating the practical impact of the State not being allied with the President on this initiative, and continues to be unwilling to risk his political capital (and we discussed how minimal that might be last week as you saw his current poll numbers) unless the votes are definitively there. We suspect that if he were just one or two votes shy of 26 in the Senate, he would call a special session simply because he would believe the gathering and Groupthink would overcome the inertia for the current set of maps, which had proven so acceptable to legislative Republicans just four years ago.
“I think we’re going to get there,” the Guv suggested Tuesday morning.
And while everyone has been concentrating on what the President might do to or extract from the state should the supermajority Republicans remain recalcitrant, someone posed the flip side of the question to us: what is Governor Braun getting out of this deal from President Trump, given this president’s transactional nature? We had no ready (nor eventual!) answer, and wonder if there is any sweetener.
Support for the special session has been public basically only in the form of highly targeted digital ads purchased by MAGA- aligned entities, as well as on social conservative social media . . . although backing for new maps is not even monolithic among this constituency. WIBC 93.1FM’s Rob Kendall, the popular SoCon Indianapolis radio talk show host, has been active in drumming up opposition from the right.
However, as Punchbowl News observes from its Inside the Beltway perspective Thursday morning, the public revelation about the Senate support deficiency “triggered quick blowback from Trump World and threats to ratchet up the political pressure on those seen as thwarting Trump’s goals. The question now is just how painful this will get.”
Among the quick responses: former Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita, now the de facto political guy at the
U.S. Department of Homeland Security tweets: “Now the real fun begins ..” and his posts on X generates scores of responses about the need to challenge the remap opponents. Trump ally Steve Bannon adds to POLITICO’s Wren, “They ain’t seen pressure yet.” Former Trump political and White House advisor Jason Miller tweets of the Senate GOP map stall, “Not smart!”
Punchbowl observes that “The challenge for Trump allies is that only some of Indiana’s Republican state senators are up for reelection next year. Bray, for one, isn’t up until 2028. But the pressure could still get intense. The White House has leaned heavily on Indiana to redistrict. Trump has a lot of money to spend running TV ads in Indiana and his political operation could easily recruit challengers for those who are up.”
Meanwhile, opposition to the remap effort has been building. We detailed for you the public polling numbers that find a plurality or even a majority of Hoosiers opposed to the concept, even before seeing any potential maps. WIBC’s Kendall also suggests on X that “Clearly lawmakers saw the same thing everyone else did. If anyone thinks they didn’t do internal polling they’re dreaming.”
Since we were last with you, more Democratic lawmakers have been hosting town hall events in their respective districts educating voters about the situation (former U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) dropped in on one hosted by Rep. Alex Burton (D) on Wednesday); the Indiana Black Legislative Caucus blasted what its members consider to be a deliberate attempt to dilute minority representation in Congress from Indiana; “No Kings” rallies across Indiana last weekend – Indiana Democratic Party officials claim 65,000 Hoosiers attended the events – energized the Democratic base and independents; and on Tuesday, Indiana Conservation Voters, Common Cause Indiana, the League of Women Voters of Indiana, Citizens Action Coalition, and Women for Change, delivered more than 10,000 new signatures of Hoosiers opposed to mid-decade redistricting to the Governor – more than doubling the initial petition drop against new maps that we told you was delivered in early September.
Last week we tipped you to an Indiana Conservation Voters (ICV) statewide media campaign urging Hoosiers to tell their lawmakers to continue rejecting the D.C.-pushed redistricting effort. Over the past weekend, ICV placed an additional $100,000 buy (on local network television) to ensure the anti-redistricting ad was seen during the Saturday Indiana University and University of Notre Dame football games, as well as Sunday’s Indianapolis Colts matchup.
And, as of Wednesday, with the Senate Majority Caucus publicly declaring that the votes aren’t there, the new public phase opens with the Governor and Sen. Bray pitted against each other. “The next move will likely come from Republican Gov. Mike Braun,” notes Punchbowl News. “He’s still expected to call a special session for November to pass a new congressional map, essentially daring Bray and others to oppose it.”
But it’s only that simple in the minds of those who don’t truly understand State House dynamics. This is a battle that Sen. Bray didn’t ask to engage in. His leadership legacy would be defined in a negative way if he caved to political pressure (and even if he did decide to board the redistricting train, there is no indication that he could bring along those reluctant to join).
But, more importantly, those who watch the Third Floor Zeitgeist on a daily (or hourly!) basis for a living understand that Sen. Bray always views critical issues and opportunities through a prism much broader than the individual vote. Institutionalism is in his genes (his grandfather served in Congress, and his father in the Indiana House and Senate before him; all three generations served as prosecutors). One big takeaway we had from a lengthy 2018 interview he offered your favorite newsletter prior to his first session as pro tem was that he would view each issue within the context of what it would mean for the Senate, General Assembly, and the State moving smoothly and looking down the road through a session and beyond.
Seven years ago Sen. Bray told us, “We’re going to essentially make decisions as a group. I’m not going to be out there telling the caucus what they’re going to do. We’ll have detailed conversations about some of the policy that we’re going to make; we’ve already been having some of those leading up to this session, because the session and the issues are starting to come into focus. So we’re going to make decisions as a group and decide where to go, I’ll kind of lead some of those discussions, but it’s not just me that’s making those decisions.”
And, as you’ve seen, he’s adhered to those principles, herding a philosophically disparate caucus through some fairly divisive votes without being faced by a serious focused challenge to his leadership.
If Sen. Bray were to adopt a heavy-handed approach and pull out all of the stops – such as, perhaps, yanking committee chairs and leadership posts or campaign cash – he would end up with a hollow body that would rebel against such tactics, which have not been implemented on any widespread basis in generations by any House or Senate leader. We could be facing the breakdown of a system and regular order, and the Governor and House Speaker Todd Huston (R), who has also kept his powder dry, would be forced to deal with – well, chaos.
But we may get there anyway, as Senate Majority Floor Leader Chris Garten (R), the hand-picked right hand man for Sen. Bray, revealed Wednesday afternoon in a tweet that he’s on board with the President – the President of the United States, and not the president pro tem of the Senate. Sen. Garten explains:
I fully support redistricting in Indiana and have been in support since day one.
Out of respect for caucus deliberations, I haven’t made a public statement, but my colleagues and the constituents I’ve spoken to have known where I stand. In light of recent speculation about where elected officials fall on this issue, I owe it to the voters to make my position public and clear.
This is not a fight Republicans picked, but it’s at our doorstep, and I’m prepared to answer the call. For decades, Democrat states have gerrymandered in the dark of the night. Yet those same Democrats fake outrage at the notion Indiana would redraw our maps to balance the scales. We can no longer sit idly by as our country is stolen from us.
@POTUS has been able to accomplish more in the first 8 months of this presidency than the last several presidents combined. It is vital that we maintain a majority in the House so we can continue to see legislation passed like the Working Families Tax Cut.
Hoosiers don’t back away from a fight. Let’s go.
And now we also have Lieutenant Governor Micah Beckwith (R) weighing in – in a decidedly unhelpful way. The LG (who also serves as the president of the Senate) was an early adopter of the remap plan, and largely stayed on the sidelines as votes were being lassoed, understanding that there was likely nothing he could do to persuade the undecideds, and certainly not to concert the antis. He’s also been involved for many months in finding and backing primary challengers to incumbent GOP senators, another reason why he has not endeared himself to the caucus that won’t allow him to join in behind closed door caucus meetings.
On Wednesday afternoon, however, Lt. Governor Beckwith inserted himself back in the debate with this statement:
The people of Indiana did not elect a Republican supermajority so our Senate could cower, compromise, or collapse at the very moment courage is required.
Yet, here we are again. The Indiana Republican-controlled Senate is failing to stand with President Trump, failing to defend the voice of Hoosier voters, and failing to deliver the 9-0 conservative map our citizens overwhelmingly expect.
For years, it has been said accurately that the Indiana Senate is where conservative ideas from the House go to die.
As President of the Senate, I am no longer willing to let that reputation stand unchallenged. We are not elected to fail. We are elected to show up and speak on behalf of our constituents.
We are not elected to surrender preemptively. We are elected to fight.
Indiana should be leading the nation, not apologizing for being a strong conservative state, while radical Democrat Marxists wage war on our Constitution, our children, and the future of this Republic. Washington is being overrun by an anti-American agenda, and instead of joining President Trump in reclaiming our voice, too many in our own Senate choose the oath of weakness and political convenience.
II am calling upon my Republican colleagues in the Indiana Senate to find your backbone, to remember who sent you here, and to reclaim Indiana’s rightful voice in Congress by drawing a 9-0 map.
History will not remember those who stepped aside when action was necessary. Hoosiers are demanding warriors, so their voice is heard.
If we do not fight now, for our state, our children, and our country, then what exactly are we here for?
Indiana Senate, let’s get this done now.
Remember when former vice president Mike Pence (R) was selected for that JFK Profiles in Courage award? Which Hoosier will be in line for it next year, the president of the Senate or the president pro tem of the body?
Also weighing in Wednesday – from his Washington Post Opinion pulpit: former Gov. Mitch Daniels (R). He labels redistricting “a bad idea” and advises his fellow Republicans thusly: “I want the GOP to keep control of the U.S. House, but Indiana shouldn’t cave to White House pressure.”
I have kept almost entirely quiet about matters of partisan politics ever since leaving elective office more than a dozen years ago. But watching the national drive to redraw congressional district lines mid-decade prompts a temporary departure from my bleacher seat. My home state of Indiana is on the national Republican target list for new lines, as part of the quest to ensure continued control of the House. While the outcome sought is one I support, the tactic being employed to get there is not, and I hope earnestly that my state’s leaders will politely decline to participate.
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A plausible rationale for a do-over would be to redress an obvious injustice in the current lines, but that situation does not obtain here. Indiana’s map is visually reasonable, salamander-free; the districts are compact and for the most part respect county lines. Republicans drew this map and have no unfairness to complain about; with about 60 percent of the state’s total congressional votes cast, they won seven out of nine House seats.
The arguments to which Indiana Republicans are being subjected are, to be charitable, unpersuasive. “They do it, so we should, too” …. “We’ll be punished by the administration if we don’t cooperate.” That sounds like the reaction to some puffed-up White House apparatchik’s mouthing off, but in any event it’s a bluff that a self-respecting state ought to call.
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To top things off, the Sturm und Drang occasioned by an Indiana lunge for more partisan lines would concern, at most, one seat. The reason the state’s districts are so geographically sensible while yielding a disproportionately Republican seat count is that Democratic voters are clustered. The county that is coterminous with Indianapolis delivered 18 percent of all statewide Democratic House votes in 2024; its Democratic member of Congress won with more than a two-thirds majority.
No amount of line-drawing artistry can turn that area into a Republican seat, so that leaves the state’s northwest corner, where the Democratic margin has been in the mid-50s. Conceivably some computer could carve out a winnable GOP district. The attempt, which might not even work, would, I’m convinced, come at the expense of public disgust; Hoosiers, like most Americans, place a high value on fairness and react badly to its naked violation.
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As with other aspects of the currently debased public square –lawfare, demonizing opponents, the normalization of infantilism and profanity in public discourse – someone has to lead in climbing out of the mudhole. The side that does will not be unilaterally disarming; it will be establishing itself as the proper custodian of a system that most Americans still want to trust and believe in.
I don’t underestimate the pressure Indiana’s leaders are under, and I empathize with them in the predicament they face, but I hope they’ll quietly and respectfully pass on this idea. Their duty is to the citizens and the future of our state, not to a national political organization or a temporary occupant of the White House. And doing the right thing, by the way, really would be its own reward.
That’s quite the chastening from the most popular Republican governor in probably two generations . . . but one who remains anathema to the new base of his old party (recall how he was dissuaded from running against then-U.S. Rep. Jim Banks (R) in the 2024 U.S. Senate primary?) . . . and those from the (old) establishment who would pay respect to his comments probably long ago signed on to the “no new maps” cause. This column was for national show to minimize damage to the state brand – again, among the “establishment” – and not local impact.
As Sen. Tyler Johnson (R) tweeted Wednesday, “The fence sitting is going to end very quickly in Indiana on redistricting. There is no sidestepping and there is no middle ground in this discussion. You will see the leftist machine start praising and publicly supporting republicans. That should be an extremely uncomfortable place to be.”
We’ve already breezed by some of the hinted announcement times, if not the rumored special session dates.
In terms of “strategery,” the Governor has to decide whether he will call a special session if he’s just veritable handful of votes away from achieving his objective, or wants to wait until he is absolutely certain the votes are there. The risk with the latter is that he may never get to that point; the former carries with it the same prospect, as well as the potential for humiliation by convening a session in which he loses. A case can be made that the Governor should wait until as close to the session date as possible to announce his intention to bring lawmakers back to the State House to reduce the likelihood that they will be swayed against his plan by their constituents in regular settings, or by a paid targeted media blitz by opponent of new maps.
There’s really no good, simple answer.
What seems like ages ago now, we told you to expect any special session call to couple the bitter (new maps) with the sweet (such as pro-taxpayer property tax reform tweaks). We still expect such an approach, but there’s a potential new imperative that the Governor can seize upon and also use to his advantage in terms of the timing we just discussed.
As a result of the federal government shutdown and congressional inaction, Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC) and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits for Hoosiers may be in serious danger beginning in early November. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Food and Nutrition Service notified its regional directors on October 17 that federal funds for the program will run out after October if the federal government shutdown continues. In Indiana, SNAP benefits load November 5, a bit later than the November 1 date in most states (November 1 is also when open enrollment begins, so it’s a big date for both parties given the shutdown), so Indiana may have a few more days of leeway. Regardless, Indiana is among at least 25 states “issuing notices informing participants of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program – the nation’s largest anti-hunger initiative – that they won’t receive checks next month,” POLITICO reports Thursday . . . although as of early Thursday there was no mention of this on the Family and Social Services Administration website.
The Governor could announce that he is convening a special session next month to address state supplemental assistance for the 571,594 Hoosiers who received SNAP benefits (as of September), and an average of 155,500 pregnant women and infants who received WIC benefits (as of May) that might otherwise be foregone due to the ongoing federal government shutdown.
Governor Braun could also explain that he wants lawmakers to use this as an early opportunity to bring the Indiana tax code into conformance with the taxpayer-friendly changes rendered under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, emphasizing how this would positively impact middle-class families and those who rely upon tipped income and are able to take advantage of overtime pay.
Such a session could be convened before mid-November, combined with Organization Day, and the Guv can continue to lobby for redistricting behind the scenes and gauge the ongoing willingness of solons to back redistricting. If the votes are there, the special session will be in place. If the votes are not there, he does not lose face, and can point to how Hoosiers of all financial stripes have been helped by the early tax law and property tax changes.
That’s about as big a win as the Guv can claim without actually getting new maps, and he might just have to declare victory and not concede defeat in a game that never was officially played. While he’d still have to deal with fallout from the President if he can’t get the maps through, he will at least have pulled out all the stops and not been permanently tarnished politically, and will not have irreparably harmed his relationship with legislative leadership.
And if he is so concerned about his relationship with the White House and what might happen to Indiana as a result, he might add another issue to the legislative special session agenda: immigration reform. Gov. Braun can tell lawmakers that he heard loud and clear from Tom Homan and members of the supermajority that it is imperative Indiana matches state law to Immigration and Customs Enforcement needs, and he wants to make it happen quickly. That might slave some White House wounds.
