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By Marilyn Odendahl

The Indiana Citizen

May 6, 2024

Seven billboards that have popped up across Indiana in advance of the May primary show just how dominant the Republican Party has become in the Hoosier state.

The outdoor placards, an initiative of ReCenter Indiana, are encouraging crossover voting with the message “Even Democrats can vote in the Republican Primary,” because, the nonprofit states on its website, with the Indiana GOP’s long history of winning most statewide office, many races will probably be decided in the primary election on May 7, rather than in the general election on Nov. 5. Consequently, ReCenter is pushing Democrats, Independents and Libertarians to ask for a Republican ballot when they vote in the primary and to vote for the moderate or centrist candidates who most reflect Hoosier values.

“We want the Democrats to vote for the more moderate (person) to get a candidate that actually will reflect the values of Hoosiers and if (the Republican) turns out to be the better candidate, so be it,” Don Knebel, founder of bipartisan ReCenter Indiana, said. “Our goal is to have both candidates (on the November ballot) reflect the center and … not to have an extreme candidate running against a moderate.”

Certainly, Hoosiers who cast a GOP ballot in Tuesday’s primary will have more candidates from which to choose. An analysis by The Indiana Citizen found 7,551 candidates are running as Republicans in the May primary, compared to 1,173 who are running as Democrats. The total includes convention delegates and precinct committee members.

Republicans outnumber Democrats in state races across the ballot, starting with the six candidates vying for the GOP nomination for governor versus one seeking the Democratic nomination. In races for the Statehouse, Republicans have 113 candidates for the House and 25 for the Senate, compared to the Democrats’ 73 and 17, respectively. Even in local contests, the dominance continues with Republicans fielding 311 candidates for county commissioner and 86 candidates for town council members, while Democrats have 60 and 13, respectively.

Indiana is not an outlier. As Aaron Dusso, associate professor of political science at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis, pointed out, other states have either outsized Republican or Democratic parties, which makes the primary the determining election.

However, he noted, an important question is whether single- party control is good for democracy.

“In a democracy, you would like to see competitive elections,” Dusso said. “The belief is that more competitive elections will help keep politicians and parties accountable. The lack of those allows parties to essentially veer off – or politicians, individually, – into more extreme (positions) or just personal aggrandizement for their benefit … because they don’t have to worry about reelection.”

Hoosiers in the middle not represented, ReCenter says

The Indiana Republican Party maintained Hoosiers are putting its candidates in office because they like what they are seeing and hearing.

“The fact that there are 6,000 more candidates running in Republican primaries than Democrat primaries just goes to show that the Republican platform does represent the majority of Hoosiers,” Griffin Reid, Indiana GOP spokesman, said. “Republican policies are popular and people want to be a part of it.”

However, Knebel, of ReCenter Indiana, disputed that the GOP supermajority in the state legislature was reflective of Hoosiers’ values and political perspectives, pointing to the results of a survey of Hoosiers by the Bowen Center for Public Affairs at Ball State University.

In particular, the 2023 survey found 86.4% of Indiana residents support some form of legalized marijuana and 59.1% believe abortion should be legal in most or all instances. Yet, Indiana lawmakers have not rewritten the state’s marijuana statutes, despite 55 bills being introduced since 2020 seeking some legalization of marijuana or cannabis. Also, the Indiana General Assembly passed one of the country’s most restrictive abortion laws in 2022.

Knebel linked the apparent disconnect between the actions of elected officials and the moderate views of most Hoosiers to the state’s abysmal voter turnout. In 2020, the last presidential election year, the Indiana Secretary of State reported that just 24% of registered voters in Indiana cast a ballot in the primary.

The voters who go to the polls in May, Knebel said, tend to be “the people who are the most extreme and the most partisan.” As a result, the candidates who win in the primary are likely going to be from the far ends of the political spectrum, he said, so once they get into office, the state is “going to have legislatures responding only to that 20% (who voted in the primary) and not the middle 60% (where most Hoosiers reside).”

Dusso and Laura Merrifield Wilson, associate professor of political science at the University of Indianapolis, noted Indiana Republicans are likely attracting candidates because of the party’s strength. Someone thinking of running for office – particularly for local positions such as county auditor or coroner, which are not really partisan offices – might choose the GOP label in order to have a better chance of winning the election.

“The role of a party in a democratic society … is to gain office and then pass policy,” Dusso said. “Within the state of Indiana, Republicans are certainly doing a great job of gaining office and passing policy because, by and large at the state level, they can pass whatever they want.”

Voters getting different experiences in the primary

A challenge for the Indiana Democratic Party is convincing people to run for office, according to a veteran of Democratic campaigns, including those for governor and the legislature, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized by the party to speak publicly. Especially in today’s divisive political climate, the sacrifice and commitment need to learn about the issues and then talk to voters can be too much for many potential candidates, he said. Moreover, he said, the popularity of the Republican Party can mean all the work will end in a loss anyway on Election Day.

Even so, the campaign veteran asserted Democratic candidates have an advantage, since many will not be facing a primary opponent. They will head into the general election race unscathed, while many of their GOP counterparts may have to spend time rebuilding bridges and repairing their reputations after bruising primary contests.

Merrifield Wilson compared the burden on Hoosier voters this primary to what a person faces while making a spaghetti dinner. The few Democrats versus the many Republicans on the primary ballot are not giving voters the right balance of choices. And just like shoppers going to the grocery may want more than one brand of spaghetti sauce to choose from, having a hundred brands on the shelf can be too much.

While the number of Republican candidates running in the primary is impressive, Merrifield Wilson said the quantity does not give any indication about the quality. “A quick and dirty measurement” of quality looks at whether the candidate has run for office and been elected, she said, and, because of how many Republicans are on the May ballot, it is possible the GOP “would have maybe more (candidates) that don’t have that quality variable.”

Hoosiers voting in the GOP primary will not be able to rely on the party label to guide their choice, since all the candidates will be Republicans, Merrifield Wilson said. To make their selections, voters are going to have to get beyond the staple Republican priorities, because, for example, all of the GOP candidates will likely be pro-life, and know the nuanced differences between the contenders on such issues as economic development, she said.

Democrats, Merrifield Wilson said, have the opposite problem. With so many uncontested races, the Democrats are not offering voters any diverse viewpoints in the primary, she said. An example is the governor’s race, where Jennifer McCormick, the former Republican superintendent of public instruction in Indiana, is the lone candidate on the Democratic ballot. If McCormick is not resonating with some Democratic voters, they cannot pick another candidate.

“The best mix feels like it would be somewhere between the two, where you have a few choices but not too many choices,” Merrifield Wilson said. “It’s just fascinating to see what really is a dichotomy in terms of what voters, depending on what primary ballot you’re pulling on May 7, your experience, your requirement to be an engaged voter … that expectation is going to be very different.”

Rationale to consider crossover voting

ReCenter Indiana has put billboards in Merrillville, Fort Wayne, Indianapolis, Evansville, South Bend, and Bloomington.

Campaigns for crossover votes usually encourage the voters in one party to pick the weakest candidate in the opposing party. Then, the thinking goes, the opposing party’s candidate will have limited appeal and not pose much competition to your favored party’s choice in the general election.

That is not the goal here, Knebel said. The organization is focused on getting more moderates elected, regardless of party, because most Hoosiers fall into the middle of the political spectrum and their views are not currently being represented in the Statehouse or municipal governments, he said.

“If you look at our (last) 20 years of history, the Republicans who’ve been nominated in the primary, are likely to win” the general election, Knebel said. “If that’s true, then it’s in the interest of the state to have (candidates on the ballot who) reflect the view of the 60% (of Hoosiers).”

To Dusso, ReCenter Indiana is being pragmatic. ReCenter is telling Democrats, Dusso said, that even though they may not like any of the Republicans on the ballot, they should vote for the GOP candidates that most closely align with their views, “because this is the only choice you’re going to have.”

Dwight Adams, a freelance editor and writer based in Indianapolis, edited this article. He is a former content editor, copy editor and digital producer at The Indianapolis Star and IndyStar.com, and worked as a planner for other newspapers, including the Louisville Courier Journal.

The Indiana Citizen is a nonpartisan, nonprofit platform dedicated to increasing the number of informed and engaged Hoosier citizens. We are operated by the Indiana Citizen Education Foundation, Inc., a 501(c)(3) public charity. For questions about the story, contact Marilyn Odendahl at marilyn.odendahl@indianacitizen.org