By Michael Leppert
The Indiana Citizen
July 16, 2025
Last week, U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced there will be no release of the “Jeffrey Epstein files.”
It’s hard to predict when people will have finally had enough. The tolerance level of undesirable traits and behaviors from other humans will vary from person to person of course. And in today’s world of unexplainable group think, a rational understanding of group tolerance is often fleeting.
This is not a column that will provide some new theories about what’s in the elusive Epstein files. No, I will never have confidence that the entire truth of that monster’s life will be known. I didn’t before he died, and with each passing moment since his death, the whole truth has drifted further and further from us.
But we did know enough about him, and his disgusting existence, long ago, to know who not to trust with giving us the facts. Epstein had been friends with Donald Trump. They socialized together. They traveled together. They womanized together.
Anyone paying attention already knew all of this.
Trump and his minions were never going to be the truth tellers in this or any other saga. But particularly this one.
So, I never understood why Trump’s supporters sought “transparency” regarding the U.S. Department of Justice’s infamous “Epstein Files.” Did they seek confirmation of what was already widely known? It can’t be that. No, there was seemingly some menu of conspiracy theories floating around in their ecosystem that would cause the stench of Epstein and his sex trafficking operation to stick to others. It always seemed like an elaborate fantasy of MAGA world that if someone from the other side was as dirty and as guilty as Trump, it would make all of his badness tolerable somehow.
But again, what is it that causes that kind of devotion, that kind of naivete?
Dr. Grant Hilary Brenner wrote in Psychology Today, “How We Believe Lies Despite the Obvious Truth,” in April of 2022. The fascinating concept in the article is the discussion of “the basic prefactual effect.” Dr. Brenner defines it this way: “When people expect that something may become true in the future, they were more likely to excuse the falsehood in the present. Across the several studies (cited in the article), this effect held for lies about commercial products, falsehoods on resumes in job applications, and around divisive political issues.
Long ago, in a galaxy far, far away, the MAGA world had been persuaded to believe the original lie here—that Epstein’s party companions were likely only people who they would consider “the other.” That was the basic prefactual effect, and they were willing to excuse the obvious truth of Trump’s connection with that underworld, because at some point in the future, the shameful truth about their enemies would become known.
Whew. It sounds like psychological gymnastics.
However, it does concisely explain why the loyal supporters feel as if they are being lied to for the first time on the topic and are now enraged by it. For years now, they expected the eventual make-believe “transparency” to prove their enemies were in fact the bad guys, and to exonerate their own obvious bad guy.
Dr. Brenner’s explanation of the basic prefactual effect is simple to understand. And while it also brings clarity to how MAGA world went along for so long, it doesn’t explain the rage they feel about the lie apparently being over now.
It is the plausibility and vividness of the faulty belief that is likely the most impactful here. “When participants imagined prefactuals more vividly and believed there was a good chance of the facts changing, they were less likely to judge lies as unethical, because the gist of the statement was experienced as true even if the facts weren’t quite right. The more plausible and vivid the prefactuals, the stronger the truth-distortion effect.”
In today’s example, Trump’s network of believers had vivid expectations and because they were strongly believed to be plausible, the stark deviation from the expectation is significantly more of a shock.
Again, whew.
For much of the last decade, I have been amazed by how so many Americans could go along with an obvious lie and then defend the lie with such devotion. I have said it and written it many times that eventually that devotion will collapse—immediately following up with some acknowledgement that I have no idea what that tipping point will be.
None of the drama at the DOJ involving Bondi, FBI Director Kash Patel, and Deputy Director Dan Bongino surprises me at all.
What does surprise is that it was this betrayal, of all of Trump’s betrayals, that threatens a collapse of the cult’s precious devotion.
Michael Leppert is an author, educator and a communication consultant in Indianapolis. He writes about government, politics and culture at MichaelLeppert.com. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Indiana Citizen or any other affiliated organization.
